5/24/19 Weekend Actuals - Aladdin summons impressive $116.8M 4-day weekend, sets sights on $300M+ domestic total
Handily crossing tracking with a full day to go, Aladdin scored a great debut that showed just how much goodwill audiences have for the original, now seems likely to be among the top five grossers of the summer. Meanwhile, Brightburn and Booksmart both debuted soft, continuing a troubling trend of lower profile films floundering so far this year.
With $116.8M over the long weekend, the Disney live-action remake had the fifth biggest Memorial Day weekend of all time, behind Pirates of the Caribbean 3 ($139.8M, though that does not include $13.2M in Thursday previews that would be included now), Indiana Jones 4 ($126.9M), X-men: The Last Stand ($122.9M), and Fast & Furious 6 ($117.0M). What is most impressive about Aladdin’s opening, though, is its Monday, which was in fact the second largest Memorial Day gross behind Indiana Jones 4’s $26.8M Monday, showing how the film continued to top expectations as it went along. Tuesday’s tally came in at $12.0M, which is the best first Tuesday for any Memorial Day opener. While the strength of Tuesday as a movie going day has grown significantly in recent years, this is still a phenomenal result and even more evidence Aladdin will see strong legs, with a $300M domestic total well within reach now. Audiences have shown their support for musicals recently, and it’s likely that Aladdin is benefiting from that and it’s legs will be something to watch out for, even with the competition arriving over the next few weeks.
Overseas results were also strong, with $139.0M through Monday. $350M+ from the territories that have already opened should be on the table, with a final result over $400M pending on how Japan receives the film. It’s worth noting that Beauty and the Beast grossed a massive $110.8M there, so the potential for Aladdin to over-index in Japan is certainly there, and would put a $500M international gross within sights.
Less enthusiastic news befell the other two openers this week, as Brightburn and Booksmart both failed to top $10M over the 4-day, with $9.6M and $8.7M, respectively. The latter going so wide immediately was a bold move that didn’t pan out, and unfortunately it is unlikely strong word of mouth will compensate for what is certain to be a sharp decline in theaters on its third weekend. Had distributor United Arts Releasing gone for a limited release and rolled the film out more gradually, that would have in the end resulted in a higher box office total.
More difficult to assess is Brightburn, which failed to capitalize on its unique concept or the commercial strength of the horror genre. Audiences bouncing off the Superman-gone-bad premise is the most likely explanation, though both it and Booksmart are continuing a trend that has begun since the first week of May: non-blockbuster films have been doing extremely poorly, which almost all of them falling into the low end of weak tracking. While massive openers is the backbone of the summer season, if smaller fare completely implodes, that is a negative result in a year that is still lagging behind 2018 by over 9%. This will be something that box officer observers will watch out for as we move into June and beyond.
John Wick 3, losing PLF screens and facing an overperforming Aladdin, fell harder than expected with a $31.0M 4-day frame, and had a 56.7% 3-day decline to $24.9M. This is a steeper drop-off than the first two Wick films, but the film has already well surpassed Chapter 2 with $110.8M as of Tuesday. Like Deadpool 2 last year, it is a safe bet that Wick 3 will be able to stabilize and blast past the $150M mark.
Avengers: Endgame was able to stabilize this weekend, dipping only 42.6% to a $17.2M 3-day weekend and as of Tuesday a running total of $805.3M and $2.689B worldwide. For those looking for a new worldwide champ, Endgame’s international weekend was deeply impacted by Aladdin as it made only $16.8M overseas. As a result,barring extraordinary circumstances, the MCU meg picture is on course to outgross Avatar’s original run, but not with the $33.2M re-release included.
Detective Pikachu should ultimately be able to scrape to the highest grossing videogame adaptation worldwide, as its $13.4M weekend and $121.8M running total through Tuesday points towards a final domestic gross at roughly $150M and a worldwide total of roughly $440M. Much more will require some aid from Godzilla: King of the Monsters which has the same distributor as Pikachu and could result in a double feature effect.
| TOP TWELVE | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 4-day Weekend | Projected Total | ||
| Aladdin | $116,805,962 | $310,300,000 | |
| John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum | $30,974,297 | $159,200,000 | |
| Avengers: Endgame | $22,063,855 | $842,100,000 | |
| Detective Pikachu | $17,247,401 | $150,000,000 | |
| Brightburn | $9,610,417 | $19,500,000 | |
| Booksmart | $8,701,363 | $23,300,000 | |
| A Dog's Journey | $5,447,100 | $23,800,000 | |
| The Hustle | $4,590,727 | $35,700,000 | |
| The Intruder | $2,943,169 | $36,500,000 | |
| Long Shot | $1,999,572 | $32,900,000 | |
| Dumbo | $1,192,842 | $114,900,000 | |
| The Sun Is Also a Star | $1,048,881 | $5,500,000 | |