6/7/19 Weekend Estimates - Sequels sent to the dogs as The Secret Life of Pets 2 opens to $47.1M and Dark Phoenix debuts with disastrous $32.3M
For the second weekend in a row, audiences saw supposed blockbusters sequels in roughly half the numbers of their predecessors, with The Secrete Life of Pets 2 and Dark Phoenix pulling a Godzilla.
Illumination suffered a significant chink in its armor in what a month ago seemed like it’d be a surefire bet to open to at least $80M. Pets 2 declined roughly 55% from the $104.4M opening of the first to $47.1M—not including the $925K brought in from May early screenings—this weekend, and represents the third lowest debut for the animation studio after Hop ($37.5M in 2011) and Sing ($35.5M but with a Wednesday debut). It even down noticeably from the $56.4M debut of 2010’s Despicable Me, the studio’s first theatrical film. While that toon along with fellow Illumination films Despicable Me 3 ($72.4M), The Grinch ($67.6M), and the aforementioned Sing were able to leg it out to over $260M, do not expect the same from Pets 2. The daily pattern—only a 20% Saturday increase when taking out previews—indicate a degree of frontloadness, and Toy Story 4 is preparing to suck all the oxygen out of the room in two weeks. Notably, Pixar’s latest has received rave early impressions comparing it in quality to the previous three, and along with brisk presales, portends a potentially record breaking run to come. In other words, Pets 2 will likely see a decent hold next weekend, but fall over 60% the following weekend and that’ll be curtains.
So what exactly happened? Typically, animated sequel fare will be able to hold reasonably well compared to the first film, and has a better track record than live-action films when it comes to sequels increasing. Hence, following up the $368.4M domestic gross of the original should have translated into at least $250M stateside, at worst. The most immediate comparison is LEGO Movie 2 from earlier this year, which similarly saw its opening gross halved with $34.1M vs. $69.1M for the original. But that film came out 5 years later after two spinoffs that diluted the brand, something that wasn’t the case with Pets.. It’s likely that a combination of the original’s box office not truly reflecting audiences’ reception to it, strong competition pre and post release, plus a premise and marketing that didn’t distinguish the sequel as anything new are to blame. While extremely uncommon for animated films, live-action movies have shown themselves to susceptible to the latter: Ted 2, Neighbors 2, Magic Mike XXL, to name a few, are all films that seemed to follow beloved predecessors but took a bath due to having such similar premises. This is going to be something to watch out for, as Illumination’s next two films are Minions 2 and Sing 2, scheduled for July 2020 and July 2021. What has been an animation studio juggernaut this decade may find themselves struggling if audiences show a lack of interest in their franchises to the degree they have with Pets.
One franchise that, mercifully, doesn’t have to worry about continuing is Dark Phoenix; even if Disney hadn’t acquired the property, the X-men saga would have been put out of its misery with this $33.0M opening. Down nearly 50% from Apocalypse’s $65.7M opening, this is easily a new low for X-men movies, far below even 2013’s The Wolverine’s $53.1M. To add salt to the wound, Dark Phoenix’s 3-day start is below the opening days of The Last Stand ($45.1M), Origins: Wolverine ($34.4M), Days of Future Past ($35.5M), and for now identical with Logan ($33.0M). Like other long-in-the-tooth franchises like Transformers, audiences have had enough and adding in the well known plans to reboot the series in the MCU resulted in a total flatline. Overseas, the film opened to $107M, which includes nearly every major territory and a 4-day holiday weekend in China. Poor word of mouth is likely to lead to rough legs in a franchise that is historically very frontloaded, so a domestic total of $75M or so is in the cards and $300M worldwide is not a lock.
Live-action remake Aladdin continues to do solid business, dropping only 42.8% for a $24.5M weekend and a running total of $232.4M. The Disney blockbuster is still on pace to pass $300M domestic, and broke the $600M barrier worldwide. It is having excellent holds all across the globe, and with a $12.9M opening in Japan, could potentially break the $100M mark there on its way to a $900M+ worldwide total.
Most holdovers suffered greatly in spite of the weak openers, as theaters made room at the expense of older movies, though none were impacted as badly as Godzilla: King of the Monsters. Dropping an awful 67.5% for a $15.5M weekend, Godzilla 2 had an even worse decline than its predecessor, and will struggle to top $105M domestic. Similar numbers are occurred overseas, and if the film breaks $400M, it will be by the skin of its teeth.
Rocketman dropped 45.6% this weekend to $14.0M for a solid, but unspectacular running total of $50.5M. Last week’s final opener Ma held at $7.8M, representing a 56.8%. Both films are not exactly runaway smashes, but after providing some necessary depth at the box office while franchise pictures are struggling.
With easily the best hold in the top ten, John Wick 3 has shown signs of stabilizing with a great 33.2% drop to $7.4M, bringing the threequel’s cume to $138.7M. It is one day shy of topping The Matrix Revolutions to become Keanu Reeves third highest domestic hit, and will comfortably pass $150M in the end, making it Lionsgate’s biggest hit in three and a half years.
Passing $1.9B overseas this weekend, Avengers: Endgame is still kicking with a $4.8M domestic and $3.8M internationally. While it is now highly unlikely it will pass the final gross of Avatar even without its re-release, this is still obviously a staggering performance (and Marvel will get more than one more shot at the king).
The final notable holdover this was Detective Pikachu, which was brutalized by family audience competition, but still passed the $400M mark worldwide. It has also become the highest grossing videogame adaptation domestically with $137.4M, though as shown by the last couple weeks’ offerings, WB would be wise to strongly consider whether a sequel is worth the investment.
In limited release, Late Night debuted in theaters with $249,654 for a solid $62,414 PTA. The Amazon distributed film goes wide next week.
| Top Twelve Weekend Estimates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekend Gross | Projected Total | ||
| The Secret Life of Pets 2 | $47,110,000 | $135,000,000 | |
| Dark Phoenix | $33,000,000 | $75,000,000 | |
| Aladdin | $24,500,000 | $305,300,000 | |
| Godzilla: King of the Monsters | $15,540,000 | $101,300,000 | |
| Rocketman | $14,000,000 | $87,500,000 | |
| Ma | $7,820,000 | $46,800,000 | |
| John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum | $7,400,000 | $156,000,000 | |
| Avengers: Endgame | $4,800,000 | $837,100,000 | |
| Detective Pikachu | $2,980,000 | $144,800,000 | |
| Booksmart | $1,577,259 | $20,200,000 | |
| A Dog's Journey | $1,360,000 | $23,000,000 | |
| Brightburn | $560,000 | $17,300,000 | |