UPDATE — Avengers: Endgame snaps records with $156.7M Opening Day, marches towards $350M-370M weekend
4/27/2019 UPDATE: What seemed like it may be a touch-and-go proposition through the weekend has now become academic. Grossing an unfathomable $156.7M on opening day, Avengers: Endgame has thoroughly annihilated records and will not just pass $300M in ease over the next two days, but has $350M+ in its sights. Just to put these numbers in perspective, it smashed The Force Awakens’ record opening day by 31.6% and topped Infinity War by an amazing 47.4%. Endgame’s gross so far would give it the 17th highest opening weekend of all time, and the biggest for any film since last June’s Incredibles 2; twelve years ago this single day would have sufficed to break the opening weekend record. The “pure” Friday gross (subtracting Thursday previews) of $96.7M topped the $67.3M record, and even the Saturday daily gross record of $82.1M was toppled without breaking a sweat. Even more remarkably, both of these previous high marks were set just last year by Endgame’s predecessor.
It’s truly an extraordinary opening that is far surpassing even the most optimistic of predictions. Projecting the rest of the weekend is not a simple proposition, since we are in uncharted waters. Infinity War increased 22.0% over its pure Friday, a figure which seems unlikely for Endgame because of the sheer enormity of the numbers reported this morning. Even a small 5% increase puts the Saturday number at just a hair puts this at roughly $102M, making it first day to cross nine digits without the aid of previews. It’s possible demand was satiated enough that the increase is that small, but my gut tells me that won’t be the case. I would put the range at anywhere from $102M to $111M, so I’m going in the middle with $107M. Historically, gargantuan Saturday numbers result in remarkable Sunday holds, and I would expect that to hold true; a drop as small as 10% seems doable, putting the weekend at $360M. Even the “conservative” estimate of $102M for today puts it on the path to $350M, an absolutely hilarious result to consider the floor.
As the sun rises on its first full day at the domestic box office, Disney has reported that Avengers: Endgame grossed $60M in domestic Thursday previews, besting the previous record of $57M netted by Star Wars: The Last Jedi. While this is slightly under what I projected, we have to keep in mind that it represents a substantial 53.8% increase over the $39M brought in by Avengers: Endgame. I’ll continue to update this post through the weekend, but I still firmly believe $300M for the opening weekend is in the cards. Current presales for Friday are extraordinary from matinees through late evening, suggesting to me a Friday gross in the $73-$77M range.
Additionally, the MCU mega sequel has captured a mind-blowing $305M through Thursday in international territories. A simply gigantic number that suggests that not only is a $1 billion global opening happening, and that as high as $1.1 billion is in the cards. Totals include $154.5M in China, a UK record opening day of $15.3M, $14.6M in South Korea, $13.9M in Australia, and $10.4M in Italy, among others.