4/26/19 Wkd Actuals - Avengers: Endgame assembles $357M opening weekend, $1.224B global launch
4/29/19 UPDATE: The final tally is in, and in a case of cosmic poetry, Avengers: Endgame was underestimated by roughly $7M, just like The Avengers in 2012 and Infinity War last year. With $357.1M, the new opening weekend champ bested the old record by an incredible 38.6%, the highest percentage increase since Return of the Jedi in 1983 (NOTE: the original article incorrectly stated this was the case for the weekend estimate. That has now been corrected) and came just $583,176 short of topping Infinity War’s weekend by $100M. Along with some key underestimations for other films, the overall weekend cracked $400M for the first time in history; no other weekend has gotten close to that, even adjusted for inflation.
Additionally, the overseas tally was underestimated now stands at $866.5M, bringing the worldwide opening to a smashing $1.224B. With these adjustments, Endgame now stands as the the fifth highest grossing MCU of all time after just five days. I’ll be putting up projections for how I see this film’s film run going later today, for now I’ll conclude with an update of the major records list:
Widest Release: 4,662 (Previous Despicable Me 3 - 4,529)
Previews: $60,000,000 (Previous Star Wars: The Force Awakens - $57M)
Opening Day: $157,461,641 (Pre. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - $119.1)
Friday: $97,461,641 (Pre. Avengers: Infinity War - $67.3M)
Saturday: $109,264,122 (Pre. Avengers: Infinity War - $82.1M)
Sunday: $90,389,244 (Pre. Avengers: Infinity War - $69.2M)
Opening: $357,115,007 (Pre. Avengers: Infinity War - $257.7M)
Per Theater Average: $76,601 (Pre. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - $59,982)
International Opening: $866,526,407 (Pre. The Fate of the Furious - $443.2M)
Worldwide Opening: $1,223,641,414 (Pre. Avengers: Infinity War - $640.5M)
Fastest to $200 Million: 2 days (Pre. 3 days by six film)
Fastest to $300 Million: 3 days (Pre. Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Avengers: Infinity War - 5 days)
Fastest to $350 Million: 3 days (Pre. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 6 days)
Largest Overall Weekend: $401,905,513 (Pre. April 26, 2018 - $313,937,789)
Market Share: 89.7% (Pre. Avengers: Age of Ultron - 84.5%
A three hour running time and sky high expectations meant nothing to Earth’s mightiest heroes, as the culmination of eleven years has packed in audiences on a scale hitherto undreamt of. With $350M domestic and $1.209B worldwide, there was virtually no opening record that was Avengers: Endgame left intact, and set a remarkably new high bar for many. In fact, the numbers are so high this weekend that speculation can now seriously begin as to whether Endgame can become the highest grossing film of all time. Here’s a list of some of the amazing results that have occurred this weekend:
Widest Release: 4,662 (Previous Despicable Me 3 - 4,529)
Previews: $60,000,000 (Previous Star Wars: The Force Awakens - $57M)
Opening Day: $156,700,000 (Pre. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - $119.1)
Friday*: $96,700,000 (Pre. Avengers: Infinity War - $67.3M)
Saturday: $109,000,000 (Pre. Avengers: Infinity War - $82.1M)
Sunday: $84,300,000 (Pre. Avengers: Infinity War - $69.2M)
Opening: $350,000,000 (Pre. Avengers: Infinity War - $257.7M)
Per Theater Average**: $75,075 (Pre. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - $59,982)
International Opening: $859,000,000 (Pre. The Fate of the Furious - $443.2M)
Worldwide Opening: $1,209,000,000 (Pre. Avengers: Infinity War - $640.5M)
Fastest to $200 Million: 2 days (Pre. 3 days by six film)
Fastest to $300 Million: 3 days (Pre. Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Avengers: Infinity War - 5 days)
Fastest to $350 Million: 3 days (Pre. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 6 days)
Largest Overall Weekend***: $392.2M (Pre. April 26, 2018 - $313.9M)
Market Share****: 90.0% (Pre. Avengers: Age of Ultron - 84.5%
*Figure calculated by removing previews from opening day.
**Only for films that opened in more than 600 theaters.
***Represents total gross of all films over the weekend.
****Percentage of top twelve films gross made by #1 film.
After getting the ball rolling with $60M Thursday, MCU’s 22nd played closer to the rest of a franchise than a frontloaded mega opener, grossing $156.7M on opening day and then slid only 29.1% to a ridiculous $109M Saturday. This represents a 12.7% increase from Friday minus previews and obliterates the previous single day high of $82.1M (set just last year, mind you). and Endgame broke the opening weekend record by $8M without a single cent from Sunday. That Saturday is, even when comparing to days with previews included, the third highest total day of all time behind Endgame and The Force Awakens preview assisted Fridays, and topped Infinity War’s first day of $106.3M that included $39M in previews. Disney is projecting Sunday to ease 22.6% to $84.3M for a $350M opening weekend, which is likely to a very conservative estimate. Just let that sink in: the conservative estimate still has Endgame a full $92M above the previous champion. It is highly likely the actual figure will cross $360M and could score as high as $365M as audiences come back for more and spillover from Saturday keeps the sellouts coming.
The weekend stands a full 35.8% above Infinity War’s then record $257.7M, which is the biggest percentage jump the record has seen since The Lost Word: Jurassic Park in 1997— and it’s also worth noting Jedi’s adjusted per theater was the highest ever, and that has also been destroyed. It’s simply unprecedented from all angles, and the question of just how far the final gross can fly is going to be on everyone’s minds. Can the $933.7M domestic gross of Star Wars: The Force Awakens be toppled? I’ve previously written that the April release date for Endgame would make this extremely difficult, and it still will. But this opening is so overwhelming that the possibility absolutely exists, with the A+ CinemaScore adding more fuel to the fire. CinemaScore is not a particularly reliable metric—it is a small sample size from a few theaters on opening night, so in particular fan driven films will net inflated scores—though this is still only the third MCU film to receive that score after The Avengers and Black Panther, so it’s not insignificant. Other measurements of audience reception also having this scoring highly, so there’s no doubt word of mouth is great. To highlight just how much money Endgame can make, here is what the final domestic gross would be if it had the same legs as other superhero mega starts (keeping in mind the actual weekend will likely be higher):
| Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justce | $697.0M | |
|---|---|---|
| Spider-Man 3 | $779.4M | |
| Captain America: Civil War | $797.3M | |
| Iron Man 3 | $822.2M | |
| Avengers: Age of Ultron | $839.8M | |
| Avengers: Infinity War | $921.9M | |
| Deadpool | $959.9M | |
| The Avengers | $1.052B | |
| The Dark Knight | $1.178B | |
| Black Panther | $1.213B |
Several of the films do not make for good comparisons, however, it does serve to highlight just what level Endgame is playing at right now. If even Batman v Superman legs can get the film to nearly $700M, that has to be considered the absolute, “something had gone very wrong” floor at this point. So far, there’s no indication the world shattering figures are causing extra frontloadedness, so I’d be shocked to see a gross below $800M and $900M would not be surprising. To top The Force Awakens will require legs roughly on par with Infinity War, which seems unlikely but cannot be dismissed. We’ll have a clearer picture at the end of next weekend, for now we’ll have to sit back and watch this historic run unfold.
Internationally, the story was exactly the same. With $859M estimated, the global launch totals a mind numbing $1.209B, with a record $330.5M coming from China. That total tops all MCU films except for Infinity War, Black Panther, Age of Ultron, The Avengers, and Iron Man 3 (look for this to fall with Monday actuals). Many opening weekend records were set across the world in South Korea, Mexico, Australia, India, and the U.K. (the record books won’t quite reflect this due to the first week of Spectre being counted as its “opening weekend”) to name a few. And like the domestic market, these results suggest a new worldwide champ could be in the cards. I wrote in my forecast that the number to look for if you want to see Avatar ($2.788B worldwide) go down is $1.14B, and Endgame landed a full 6.0% higher. The worldwide record is likely to be a bit easier to break, and the comparisons are more favorable. And like above, I’ll provide a list of those (I’ve adjusted Infinity War’s legs to include China’s $200M opening):
| Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justce | $2.500B | |
|---|---|---|
| The Fate of the Furious | $2.758B | |
| Avengers: Infinity War | $2.946B |
The number of comparisons is considerably smaller, due to the significant changes in how films perform in China over the last few years and how few films have a simultaneous worldwide release. Another caveat is with China accounting for a large share of the pie, and unlikely to cross a 2.0 multiplier (though China has several holidays this week), that will be a slight sink on the legs. Still, at this juncture, a worldwide total at or above $2.5 billion seems like a safe bet, and The Fate of the Furious comp puts it within striking distance of Avatar. The last few Furious film have had comparable legs to several of the biggest MCU hitters, as well, which is a good sign for a $2.7B+ gross. Admittedly, with the degree that theaters have scheduled, this is an unknown situation and it’s difficult to know how much demand has not been satisfied; which also applies domestically as well. I’m not ready just yet to call a new all-time highest grosser, but my feeling right now is $850M domestic and $2.700B globally is happening, an easy silver place finish in both categories.
The other films unlucky to run into the superhero wall suffered, as was to be expected, but many were hit even more than I predicted as theaters cut down on as many non Endgame showtimes as possible. As if the news wasn’t good enough already for the MCU, Captain Marvel did successfully take the #2 spot in its eighth weekend with $8.1M as The Curse of La Llorona plunged 71.5% to $7.5M. Carol’s solo adventure is now on track to surpass the $424.7M gross of Catching Fire, making it at least the fourth highest grossing female led film domestically, depending on how you categorize the recent Star Wars flicks. Other films I saw falling hard got pummeled into submission by significant theater count losses: Pet Sematary decomposed by 73.5%, Us bled 72.6%, Missing Link lost 77.1%, After is over after a 82.2% dive, and Hellboy was sent to hell with a crazy 91.0%. Despite those brutal declines, the overall marketplace still hit an unprecedented $392.2M, up 24.9% from last year. And with actuals, don’t be surprised to see that figure break $400M.