4/26/19 Weekend Predictions - Avengers: Endgame
“Before we’re done, we still have one promise to keep...”
It doesn’t seem like that much time has passed. Eleven years ago, it was hardly a guarantee that a relatively unknown superhero could anchor his own adaptation, let alone jump start the most successful—by a factor of two—movie franchise of all time. Yet, not only did Iron Man crush expectations with a near $100M, but its impressive staying power and magnetic performance by Robert Downey Jr. gave the ambitious cinematic universe its foundation. Now, twenty films, seven billion dollar grossers, and two opening weekend records later, this chapter of the MCU concludes. Driven by an unprecedented marketing campaign and the demand to see the resolution of its predecessor’s shocking cliffhanger, Avengers: Endgame has already set records with an estimated $120M+ in domestic presales as of Monday, dusting the mark single century mark hit by Star Wars: The Force Awakens. This has increased already significant speculation on whether we will see our first $300M opener, and thanks to a simultaneous worldwide release, the first $1 billion global launch. These are, simply put, staggering figures and a massive increase from the current high marks (both of which were set just one year ago with Infinity War). Can a film possibly manage it? I think so, and I’m fully on board this crazy train. Now, I’m no stranger to letting hype and presales numbers trick me into predicting wildly overboard box office numbers, and it’s always possible the same happens here. But when the info coming in is this overwhelming, throwing caution into the wind can pay off.
Before I take an in depth look at how I expect this weekend to play out, let’s look at some of the major records that Endgame has in its sights (along with one it’s already broken). All figures are domestic unless otherwise stated:
Widest Release: 4,600+ (Broken by Avengers: Endgame)
Previews: $57,000,000 (Star Wars: The Force Awakens)
Opening Day: $119,119,282 (Star Wars: The Force Awakens)
Friday*: $67,334,939 (Avengers: Infinity War)
Saturday: $82,131,612 (Avengers: Infinity War)
Sunday: $69,231,632 (Avengers: Infinity War)
Opening: $257,698,183 (Avengers: Infinity War)
Per Theater Average**: $59,982 (Star Wars: The Force Awakens)
International Opening: $443,150,534 (The Fate of the Furious)
Worldwide Opening: $640,521, 291 (Avengers: Infinity War)
Fastest to $300 Million: 5 days (Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Avengers: Infinity War)
IMAX Opening: $30,100,000 (Star Wars: The Force Awakens)
*The opening day record includes grosses made from previews/midnights plus on Friday, while this record subtracts the previews, providing a bar for how much was made on the marketed release day.
**Only for films playing in more than 600 theaters.
As you’d guess from being the two biggest openers in history, all but one record is held by neither The Force Awakens nor Infinity War and that was aided by a very specific release strategy (more on that later).
With the 4,600+ theater count estimate, per Disney, the record of 4,535 (held by Despicable Me 3) is gone. What’s notable about this is that, for the first time since 2007, the record is now held by a film releasing outside of June or July. During the warmest months of the year, drive-in locations are at their peak operation—yes, there is still roughly 300 drive-in theaters in the US and Canada—so for Endgame to comfortably pass the mark in late April is a testament to how much demand exhibitors see on the horizon. A record number of locations will also aid in the next major record in superhero juggernaut’s path: the previews record. This is also where the most improvement over its predecessor is likely to be achieved. Infinity War first snapped to life with $39M in Thursday previews, an MCU best over Age of Ultron’s $27.6M, but fourth behind The Force Awakens, The Last Jedi ($45M), and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 ($43.5M, with only midnight showtimes). The seventh Star Wars film stands well above any other film in this category, so do the Avengers stand a chance? Smart money says “yes”. Endgame will be combating a longer running time with shows beginning an hour earlier, along with many of those 4,600 theaters opening early and closing late into the night. And the number of locations staying open for 24 hour periods has eclipsed any previous film for AMC. Moreover, the biggest reason the presales news has been so exciting is, historically, Star Wars films been a significantly larger driver of presales than superhero films. Recent MCU films have hardly been a slouch in that category, though notably Infinity War lagged behind The Last Jedi and Black Panther behind Rogue One. So for Endgame to thoroughly trounce the competition is incredible. It’s possible that MCU fans have closed the gap with their Star Wars compatriots, but even on the absolute low end, topping at least $50M in previews should be in the card.
Should Endgame fail to top the preview record, smashing the opening weekend record is certainly still in the cards as evident by the trajectory Infinity War took. Crossing $300M does become dicey, though. The daily numbers put up by Infinity War were significantly above previous, with Saturday was a new record by 18.0%. To see a triple century opening, these dailies will have to be comfortably topped, too, probably by on average 10%. Realistically, the capacity is there (contrary to what armchair experts always like to imply whenever a major milestone looks to be broken) for single day grosses well above $82M, it’s a matter of whether the appeal is so universal that enough audience members can be convinced to brave the crowds and fill those seats. Again I’ll defer to the presale numbers. Unless a shocking degree of frontloading transpires, the Friday single day record is likely to fall, even with the three hour runtime. But I expect the real magic to take place on Saturday. MCU films have shown a propensity to excel on Saturday, and examining ticket sales in major locations has suggested that even with all the must-see-right-away hype, April 28 is looking like the day to see Endgame. If showtimes can stay filled up at multiplexes across the country from morning to night, a $90M single day figure can happen. In fact, due to the increases running time, I would expect the Saturday uptick from Friday to be a bit better than what we saw for Infinity War. The final piece of the opening weekend puzzle is Sunday, and an added wrinkle is the highly anticipated Battle of Winterfell episode of Game of Thrones. It’s undeniable that the HBO show has captured the cultural zeitgeist in its final season, and a huge audience should be tuning in this Sunday to witness a pivotal moment. Will this appreciably impact Sunday business? Typically, only the largest television events in history do so (think Superbowls and the biggest boxing pay per views), and for as popular as Game of Thrones is it does not come close to that sort of viewership. Plus, it is only an hour long show, leaving the rest of the day for anyone planning to go to the theater. It’s an added factor that Infinity War did not have to contend with, but I still expect massive spillover business to result in on par Sunday decline.
Turning our attention to international waters, you’ll have noticed that The Fate of the Furious sticks out like a bent tire spoke up there. The eighth installment of the F&F series pivoted the enormous box office growth of its immediate predecessor (Furious 7 made an incredible $1.516B worldwide compared to Fast & Furious 6’s $788.7M) along with a simultaneous worldwide launch to that record. Infinity War did not have a global opening including China, where it bowed to approximately $200M; had that been included, The Avengers threequel would have handily trumped Fate with a $583.0M overseas opening. Disney is taking no risks this go around, and China—which is opening on a Wednesday—is already seeing records. MCU’s 22nd film has tallied up $28.2M in Midnight grosses, more than tripling the previous record. The opening day in China is as of this writing is projected at $107.3M, also easily the record. Hence, there is a great likelihood the domestic weekend record gets axed in two separate territories. China can often be a fickle market, and weak word of mouth can severely dampen the trajectory of a film, but the online scores so far have extremely encouraging, I sense a 5-day opening over $300M is happening. Which brings up the intriguing possibility that China’s 5-day total could surpass the domestic market’s 3-day cume. The outlook is very promising that new benchmarks will be set across the world, as well. Like with the U.S., online ticketing services crashes in many countries the instant sales went up, and preview numbers have crushed any previous MCU is a diverse range of locations. Already, a new opening day high has been set in South Korea. All told, an overseas cume above $700M through Sunday is what’s required to hit that magic $1 billion global opening, and that’s what' I’m predicting.
Like many “summer starts” films, Endgame faces little competition in its second, and even considering the projected gigantic previews and rush factor, I doubt the drop will be greater than 60%. From a $300M opening, that would net a record $120M second weekend (the current champion is, shocker, Infinity War with $114.8M). From there, things get interested as unlike Infinity War, in the third week a new challenger approaches: Detective Pikachu. The track record on videogame adaptations can be generously described as intensely poor, but all signs are pointing to this Pokémon movie breaking the curse. And the blockbuster train just keeps on rolling from there with John Wick 3, Aladdin, Godzilla, Dark Phoenix, and The Secret Life of Pets 2. I would argue that no MCU film has faced this degree of competition. Endgame’s legs are unlikely to match those of Infinity War’s, but with early reviews sitting at 96% on Rotten Tomatoes, and promising an emotional, rousing conclusion, holds should be better than Civil War. So I anticipate we will see the third $700M domestic film, and the second largest film worldwide.
Should all of the aforementioned records fall, and fall by significant margins, the question will be brought up (beyond the extent that it hasn’t already been broached) of whether Endgame can become the highest grossing film of all time, topping either $933.2M domestic cume of The Force Awakens or the $2.788B worldwide tally of James Cameron’s Avatar. Even with a theatrical start that beats all expectations, both of these figures are almost certainly out of reach thanks to the significant differences in competition and legs between summer and December releases.Additionally, Avatar benefited from more favorable exchange rates than we are currently seeing in 2019, and consequently putting Endgame at another disadvantage. Still, say the conventional wisdom on the film fails, and it ends up exhibiting the same staying power as Infinity War across the globe. What kind of figure do we need to see for that to be a possibility? Accounting for the same run of countries, Infinity War made 2.44 times its global opening so if you’re hoping for a new all-time champion, $1.140B+ is the number you’ll want to see come Monday morning.
Below are my predictions, and I’ll touch on the rest of the top ten this weekend after:
| Previews | $62.0M | |
|---|---|---|
| Friday/Opening Day | $73.1M/$135.1M | |
| Saturdaay | $90.8M | +24.2%/-32.8% |
| Sunday | $76.5M | -15.7% |
| Domestic Opening | $302.4M | |
| International Opening | $743.0M | |
| Worldwide Opening | $1.045B | |
| Domestic Total | $728.1M | |
| International Total | $1.660B | |
| Worldwide Total | $2.388B |
As you’d imagine, no other studio dared open a film against the superhero behemoth, so Endgame will almost certain set an obscure record with highest market share in a weekend. All holdovers excepting Captain Marvel and—due to some double features at drive-ins—Disney’s Dumbo remake will see significant declines. In fact, we’ve already seen the Brie Larson superhero pic get a boost from Endgame anticipation, with it increasing 5.7% this prior weekend. As audiences get their share of the big team-up film, they’re likely to also continue going to see Carol’s debut, and potentially allow Captain Marvel to win the silver medal. That would require a massive collapse from The Curse of La Llorona, but given the extraordinary circumstances, that’s entirely possible. If so, this would be the first time an MCU film has held both the first and second place position on one weekend:
| Avengers: Endgame | $302.4M | |
|---|---|---|
| Captain Marvel | $8.1M | -11.0% |
| The Curse of La Llorona | $8.0M | -69.6% |
| Shazam! | $5.6M | -66.0% |
| Breakthrough | $5.3M | -53.1% |
| Dumbo | $4.6M | -30.3% |
| Little | $3.5M | -57.8% |
| Us | $1.8M | -56.7% |
| Pet Sematary | $1.8M | -63.0% |
| Missing Link | $1.6M | -61.5% |
If my projections hold, the top ten would gross $342.7M, up 13% from last year and the biggest overall weekend tally ever.