Summer 2019 Box Office Predictions
I couldn’t believe how well some of these matched up.
Ahhh, the summer. As an enthusiast of all things box office, there is simply no more exciting time. Almost every new weekend brings another blockbuster and/or catastrophe in the making, as Hollywood still continues to output major releases too close to one another. This year is particular is very exciting, I mean, just look at that veritable who’s who of faces: Will Marvel continue to top itself? Can video games finally catch their big break? How fierce is the competition for creepiest doll of the year going to be? Is The New Mutants destined become the Duke Nukem Forever of cinema? Here, I will look to answer all that and more. Not only am I offering forecasts for all the assumed heavy hitters, but I will doing the same for all films currently listed as “wide” on Box Office Mojo’s release schedule page (with a couple exceptions, one being that Mojo currently lists the Playmobil film as release in August. This is incorrect as the film is slated for launch on November 22).
For all fifty films featured below, I will provide opening weekend and domestic total predictions. It’s reasonable to ask why I would not include a worldwide figure too, and answer is is because predicting the domestic box office for films months—hell, sometimes just weeks—in advance is very tough. Adding in a worldwide prediction for every film would simply be insanity. Lastly, I would like to note that a number of releases do not have much in the way of marketing at this case, and some especially towards the tail end of August have no trailer at all. And it’s entirely possible some will move around the calendar or will flat not release this summer. All of which suggests this is an effort in futility. That said, I’m a stickler for consistency so here’s more than four thousand words on what looks like the craziest summer in recent memory.
Avengers: Endgame
April 26
Eleven years of buildup. An unprecedented marketing push. Weak competition. Overwhelming, record shattering presale numbers. Avengers: Endgame will undoubtedly have the biggest weekend of the summer, but just how historic are we talking? The sort of figures thrown around by the typically cautious trade publications are in the $250-280M range, showing just how enormous expectations have gotten. It’s easy to get carried away, but when a film riding on this much must-see hype, letting optimism take over isn’t a bad idea. The only major negative is not being able to utilize Black Panther, Spider-Man, or the Guardians of the Galaxy in the marketing, but so far there’s no indication that has dulled interest. I’m fully expecting Endgame to best every opening record in the books and have a clear path to being the highest grosser of the year, with the potential to become Marvel’s highest grossing film yet. I’ll have more to say in a separate post, for now I’ll simply conclude that even if Endgame does not cross that magic triple century mark (a truly insane figure I did not think I’d be predicting even a month ago), at this point it’s almost guaranteed to beat the opening weekend record of $257.7M set by last year’s Infinity War.
Opening: $302.4M
total: $728.1M
El Chicano
May 3
The next four releases will have to contend with what is likely to be a second weekend well over $100M for Avengers: Endgame, which is a tough break. El Chicano is released by a small distribution firm (Briarcliff), and while this is directly targeting Latino audiences—a demo that is very unrepresented in Hollywood—this is simply not a good release date for an action film.
Opening: $2.1M
total: $5.8M
The Intruder
May 3
Like last year’s Breaking In ($17.6M opening, $46.8M close), The Intruder is hoping to benefit from counterprograming for the month of May. Other schlocky thrillers with African American leads have done better, and Dennis Quaid may attract an older audience as well (look, I cover all the bases here), but the close proximity to Endgame should keep this on the low end.
Opening: $14.5M
total: $40.6M
Long Shot
May 3
This romantic comedy has garnered solid reviews and buzz coming of SXSW, and co-stars Charlize Theron and Seth Rogen provide at least a bit of star power. The big dock against it is that political films typically do not generate numbers at the box office, as if people get enough of that in reality or something.
Opening: $4.7M
total: $14.8M
UglyDolls
May 3
STX has been a troubled studio for a few years now, even with the recent success of The Upside, and has not produced much buzz for what is the first kids film of the summer. A film likely to attract a strong family audience also opens a week later, so don’t pick Uglydolls in your summer box office fantasy football.
Opening: $5.5M
total: $13.0M
Detective Pikachu
May 10
One of my biggest personal surprises of the last half year has been the extremely positive reception to Detective Pikachu’s footage, and I include myself among that. Pokémon is an incredibly popular brand and it’s fair to say this has a great shot at being the first legitimate blockbuster videogame adaptation. Extremely high trailer views, a post-Deadpool Ryan Reynolds promoting, and solid presales thus far all point to a big opening. Even with family appeal, though, there is going to be a tremendous fan rush on opening weekend. Pokémon: The First Movie had an adjusted for inflation 5-day opening of $90.2M and closed with $152.2M, so I’m anticipating a frontloaded run here. One word of caution too is the matter of reviews; videogame adaptations are expected to be bad at this point, and negative reviews could seriously deflate hype.
Opening: $96.2M
total: $231.5M
The Hustle
May 10
There’s decent star power here, with Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson making a strong combination for this concept—the former was in last year’s Ocean’s 8 and the latter saw solid success with Isn’t it Romantic grossing $48.6M—but live-action comedies have had a very tough time in recent years (this will be a recurring theme throughout the article). It’s a tough ceiling to break, and The Hustle seems likely to do so.
opening: $15.2M
total: $43.8M
Poms
May 10
Looking to tap into the older demographics that gave 2018’s Book Club a solid $68.6M domestic cume, i.e., older audience counterprogramming against the big blockbusters, and it is likely to work again. My feeling is the trend of diminished returns will apply, with a total near $50M is safe bet.
Opening: $11.2M
total: $48.7M
A Dog’s Journey
May 17
The dog adventure genre (and make no mistake, “A Dog’s…” films counts as a genre at this point) has seemed to come out of nowhere, but here we are. A Dog’s Way Home saw a drop-off from A Dog’s Purpose with $42.0M vs $64.5M. With stronger online buzz than Way Home so far, if not for the surrounding films A Dog’s Journey would seem poised to get close to that $64.5M.
Opening: $16.8M
total $52.3M
John Wick: Chapter 3 — Parabellum
May 17
Going from cult classic to certified action blockbuster, John Wick Chapter 2 more than doubled the original with a $92.0M domestic total. With significantly higher online buzz, this threequel seems poised to keep the upward momentum going. The second film ended up a major cliffhanger, and trailers have promised a much bigger film this time, both suggestive of a major boost to the box office. A concern is the increase in competition compared to the other Wick flicks, but it’s worth pointing out this is offering action far different from the CGI fair of most. And I’d be remiss to not point out the cosmic irony of this releasing the same weekend as A Dog’s Journey.
Opening: $54.1M
total: $152.5M
The Sun is Also a Star
May 17
The only outright romantic film of the month, and based on a best-selling novel, this one is following the exact same template as 2017’s Everything, Everything down to the release date. Following the box office ($11.7M opening, $34.1M close) is the most probable result.
OW: $13.0M
DOM: $37.7M
Aladdin
May 24
Certainly one of the biggest question marks of the summer, even though a lot would assume this is a slam dunk. Aladdin remains one of the most culturally relevant animated films under the Disney banner, so why not expect boffo box office? A number of issues have arisen: the footage released has received a mixed response online, the most recent Disney live-action remake Dumbo has disappointed commercially and critically, Guy Ritchie is a divisive director, and the Memorial Day weekend spot has been “cursed” with lower than expected results four years running (notably, Disney has put out an underpeformer during each of those four years). The popularity of the source material is undeniable, and this is the only summer blockbuster with a clear romance, but I see a number of negative against Aladdin and am expecting a finish below $200M.
Opening: $71.4M
total: $191.7M
Booksmart
May 24
Olivia Wilde’s directorial debut has gotten excellent reviews after showing at SXSW, and is looking to stand out over the holiday weekend. On the other hand, young distributor Annapurna Pictures has yet to deliver a hit, and going wide immediately instead of letting word of mouth grow with a small release is a dangerous gambit. I expect decent, but unspectacular, results.
Opening: $3.8M
total: $13.2M
Brightburn
May 24
The Superman-Goes-Bad angle is an easy sell for audiences, and so far has generated solid online buzz. Helping out on that front is producer James Gunn, who has been in and out of the news a lot lately, potentially increasing awareness. One problem may be that audiences have not responded positively to “grimdark” superhero films, and bounce off what is essentially the logical endpoint of that. But considering the hot streak horror has been on, my feeling is a run similar to 2008’s The Strangers while adjusted for inflation is reasonable.
Opening: $27.5M
total: $63.1M
NOTE: Ad Astra is still technically on the schedule for a Memorial Day release, but so far there is no trailer or even a poster, and it’s unknown how the Disney-Fox merger will affect it. My feeling is there is no chance this will make the date, so I will not predict it.
Godzilla: King of the Monsters
May 31
After the last Godzilla film in 2014 opened to $93.2M and then displayed shockingly weak legs with a $200.7M close, it’s understandable to think this five years later sequel would see a major erosion. What’s working in favor for the King is no film is offering the same kind of spectacle this is with giant monster battles aplenty promised; the absence of was a chief complaint of the first movie. Moreover, Kong: Skull Island (whose stinger teased Godzilla) and The Meg both overperformed expectations, suggesting late game pushes really work for the genre.
Opening: $81.5M
total: $220.0M
Ma
May 31
As mentioned previously, horror has the struck a chord with audiences many a time lately, and few companies have taken advantage of that to the degree of Blumhouse (when they put their foot forward on the marketing, anyway). Ma is probably not going to rank among the company’s smashing successes, especially with horror competition from Brightburn, but a performance in the vein of Truth or Dare looks likely.
Opening: $17.5M
total: $42.4M
Rocketman
May 31
Before Bohemian Rhapsody ($51.1M opening, $216.3M close), I’m not I sure would have expected big results here (More cosmic irony: director Dexter Fletcher replaced Bryan Singer on Bohemian Rhapsody). Rhapsody, though, is just one of several films to suggest musicals and musical biopics are having a moment: A Star is Born, The Greatest Showman, La La Land, and Straight Outta Compton come to mind. Rocketman’s trailers are offering the same appeal and this stands as a unique film in a packed summer. I do question if Elton John’s story has as much appeal as Mercury’s to audiences, and thanks to the distance from awards season along with a probable R rating, this is unlikely to match the Queen biopic. Though I still expect a strong performer for Paramount.
Opening: $31.5M
total: $125.2M
Dark Phoenix
June 7
Post Fox acquisition by Disney, this is the end of the run of X-men films by the First Class class and in a lot of ways the end of the series that started in 2000. Though, even if the merger did not happen, the outlook was not good on forward momentum. X-Men: Apocalypse fell precipitously from Days of Future Past ($155.4M from $233.9M), had weak critical and commercial reception, and the trailer views for Dark Phoenix have been unspectacular for a comic book film. Throwing in fierce competition and an unceremonious end is in sight for the mutant team.
Opening: $47.9M
total: $113.2M
Late Night
June 7
Not a whole lot to say on this one. Solid, but unspectacular early reviews, plus the consideration that Amazon Studios has yet to produce even a decent sized hit. It’s a major question of just how wide the release will even be, as Amazon has only launched one film in over more than five theaters and it was a near unprecedented bust (Life Itself made only $2.1M in 2,609 theaters). Assuming Late Night gets at least 600 theaters, a low million opening should be expected.
Opening: $1.3M
total: $4.1M
The Secret Life of Pets 2
June 7
2016’s The Secret Life of Pets was a monster hit, to put it mildly; it opened higher than any original film with $104.4M and finished with $368.4M, a best for animation studio Illumination. Sequels to animated also have a strong track record of increasing over their predecessors. So why am I going lower? SLoP’s (solid acronym) audience reception were low despite the enormous box office, the sequel’s online metrics have been noticeably under the first, and Illumination’s summer efforts have benefited greatly from a lack of competition post-release. This time, Toy Story 4 hits on its third weekend, pretty much the most direct competition possible. Ironically, the best comparison that comes to mind is Monsters University, whose legs were cut off in its third weekend by Despicable Me 2.
Opening: $82.5M
total: $259.4M
Men in Black: International
June 14
The latest iteration of the successful Men in Black series brings a new cast lead by a Thor: Ragnarok reunion in Chris Hemsworth and Tessa Thompson. The last film, MIB 3 released in 2012, opened to $54.6M and closed with $179.0M, though the introduction of news stars likely means a lower total than that. Plus fierce competition before and after opening is likely to mean bad news for this attempt at franchise revival.
Opening: $35.5M
total: $98.9M
Shaft
June 14
Following up the 2000 film of the same name (whose box office was $21.7M/$70.3M), Shaft has a solid foundation and is one of few films this summer to feature a predominantly African American cast. Admittedly, the tone of the footage released is significantly more comedy oriented than the first film, but the reception to the trailer was solid so this may not be a problem.
Opening: $29.6M
total: $81.8M
Anna
June 21
A new addition to the summer release schedule, Anna evokes more than a few comparison to 2017’s Atomic Blonde, which opened to $18M. Working against this film is significantly more competition, less star power, and the disturbing allegations against director Luc Besson. It’s hard to see this being a breakout.
Opening: $7.1M
total: $20.4M
Child's Play
June 21
A decade after the other pillars of 1980s slashers were reborn, Chucky finally gets his shot. While Chucky has not remained in the consciousness to the degree of Freddy, Michael, or Jason, the first three films in the Child’s Play series did put up comparable results so there is still likely to be a nostalgia boost. What’s likely to stop it from reaching the heights of those other slasher remakes is Annabelle: Creation’s release one week later.
Opening: $30.4M
total: $63.6M
Toy Story 4
June 21
Practically a quarter of a century later, the fourth installment in the Pixar 3D animation series that started it all is here. 2010’s Toy Story 3 was a massive hit, grossing $110.3M on opening weekend and finishing with $415.0M. But that film served as a perfect end to the series, so I’m not sure audiences will be as hyped to watch this as Incredibles 2 ($182.7M opening, $608.6M close) or Finding Dory ($135.1M/$486.3M). Marketing has also been strange, with a story trailer releasing very late, that along with production troubles may suggest the end product is not strong by Pixar’s standards. Still, it’s undeniable the Pixar brand has incredible goodwill among audiences and the story trailer has had a strong reception. The causes for concern give this a big range, so this is a tough one. If it turns out the quality actually is on par with the other Toy Story’s, I would not be surprised by a $500M gross. (And with Child’s Play this weekend and Annabelle next, this is the cosmic irony trifecta)
Opening: $123.7M
total: $430.3M
Annabelle Comes Home
June 28
You could probably pinpoint the moment horror started achieving significant mainstream success this decade with 2013’s The Conjuring. Since, WB has built a series of films that have consistently generated opening weekends in the $35-40M range, with The Nun opening well above that at $53.8M. Moreover, Annabelle 2 was able to buck the trend of sequel diminishing with stronger reviews and word of mouth, finishing with $102.1M compared to the first’s $84.3M. Additionally, Comes Home adds The Conjuring’s Warren family to the fold, almost making this the Avengers of the Conjuring Cinematic Universe. This seems poised to potentially be the biggest movie of the series so far, however, I think opening right after Child’s Play will just prevent that from happening.
Opening: $47.7M
Total: $127.5M
Yesterday
June 28
One of the potential surprises of the summer, acclaimed director Danny Boyle’s next film brings a unique premise for a romantic comedy, and along with the popularity of the Beatles and musical biopics (see Bohemian Rhapsody and, here’s hoping, Rocketman) gives this a big one up on other films in the genre. It could be that audiences don’t connect with the film to the degree I’m thinking—consider that the only romcoms of the last six years to cross $100M were Crazy Rich Asians and Trainwreck—but I’m feeling bullish on this one.
Opening: $27.5M
total: $110.4M
Spider-Man: Far From Home
July 2
As seen with Batman Begins, it can take one film to get audiences back on board after a brand has suffered negative installments. Not that the last did poorly, in this case; Homecoming grossed an impressive $334M despite the last three Spider-Man films receiving lukewarm at best receptions, so a higher number for Far From Home seems all but given. The awkwardness of the marketing beginning before Endgame releases could be an issue, but Infinity War was a major showcase for the Webslinger, the PlayStation 4 videogame was a smashing success, and Into the Spider-Verse rode a wave of praise to an Oscar victory. Spidey is as much in the public consciousness right now as the character has ever been, and it is likely audiences will be plenty primed to see his next solo(ish) adventure. The release change to fully take advantage of the Fourth of July holiday is smart, as well. Coincidentally, 2012’s Amazing Spider-Man opened in almost the same date and hit an adjusted $159.0M in six days, a figure I expect Far From Home to trounce.
Opening: $195.8M (6-day)
total: $394.2M
Midsommar
July 3
Say hello to Ari Aster’s disturbing looking follow-up to his critically acclaimed Hereditary, which had strong legs for an “art house” horror film ($13.6/$44.0M). Personally this is probably my most anticipated of the summer. Unfortunately, in some of the most baffling scheduling I have ever seen, this is the third horror release in twelve days, and only five after Annabelle. It’s also comes across as a harder sell than Hereditary and seems destined to be swallowed up by the big hitters.
Opening: $6.8M (5-day)
total: $13.6M
21 Bridges
July 12
As of writing, there is no trailer for the film, which makes this an exceptionally difficult film to predict. What we do is it’s a gritty crime thriller starring Chadwick Boseman. It’s catering to different audiences, though releasing between two sure-fire juggernauts is unwise for almost all films. But this is a real wild card.
Opening: $8.3M
total: $22.2M
Crawl
July 12
Again, no trailer here but this was shown at Cinemacon and the creature feature conceit (people stuck in a hurricane have to survive alligators) is the sort of fun concept that has produced mid-sized hits like 47 Meters Down ($11.2M opening, $44.3M finish).
opening: $13.0M
total: $38.6M
Stuber
July 12
The concept sells itself (an uber ride turns into a wild buddy romp!) and the trailer has been well-received. That said, R-rated comedies have had a tough time in recent years, and neither Kumail nor Bautista have been proven to draws. It seems unlikely this will buck any trends.
Opening: $14.2M
total: $50.5M
The Lion King
July 19
The Lion King remains the most well regarded and popular feature of Disney’s animation renaissance, and sold more home video copies than any film in history. As we saw, The Beauty and the Beast was able to increase significantly over The Jungle Book largely on account of being a more popular property. Studios have steered clear of it, making this the rare summer weekend with only one wide release. And Donald Glover plus Beyoncé providing voices is likely to make this an event to an even wider audience. On the flip side, this is the third live-action remake for Disney this year, with Dumbo already disappointing, and I’m not expecting great results from Aladdin. It’s possible fatigue for these films could set in as a result, stifling The Lion King’s potential. That said, the trailers have blown up online, with the teaser and official trailer hit 224.6 and 174.0 million views in 24 hours, respectively. The only other PG or G films close to that are The Incredibles 2 and this November’s Frozen 2 and they lag it considerably (116.4 and 113.6 million views). Moreover, the mid July slot has been a prime location in years past (see The Dark Knight sequels), and will result in some enormous weekdays numbers with all schools out.
Opening: $185.6M
total: $657.4M
The Boy 2
July 26
The first film, released in 2016, was a hit versus its budget with an $10.8M opening weekend and a $35.8M finish, showing impressive staying power for a horror film. But is there any interest in seeing a follow-up, with a new lead no less? Horror is on a hot streak, but this one feels like the runt of the litter this summer, with more appealing genre fare before and after.
Opening: $5.3M
total: $13.0M
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
July 26
Quentin Tarantino’s latest film sees him pairing up again with Leo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt, who had prominent roles in his largest and second largest films, respectively. Each name brings with it star appeal (and this is Leo’s first role since his Oscar winning turn in The Revenant, which had a $39.8M opening), so there is plenty of hype for this. The setting and likely trajectory of the story could make this a tough sell, but I’m banking on this being a slam dunk critically and setting a new high bar domestically for Tarantino.
Opening: $40.5M
total: $131.2M
Dora and the Lost City of Gold
July 31
The trailer for this has a sizable footprint on youtube, though we can probably chalk that up to viewership being inflated by memes (memeflation?). Dora The Explorer is a well-known kid’s property, but this appears to be pretty far removed from that, and personally, I think comes across like it has production values closer to Legends of the Hidden Temple than Jumanji. Worse, The Lion King is almost guaranteed to still be a monster in the third weekend, so families are likely to give this a pass.
Opening: $14.1M (5-day)
total: $36.2M
Hobbs & Shaw
August 2
After being widely considered the highlights of the last several Fast & Furious flicks, The Rock and Jason Statham are ditching the rest of the Family with this spin-off. Joining them is Idris Elba as the primary villain, and the trailer makes this out to be even crazier than the original series. Dampening the prospects a bit is that spinoffs inherently do worse and are often not received well (see Puss in Boots and The LEGO Batman Movie). Turning the spice into the stew is not easy, and segments of fans usually do prefer to see all the characters together. The F&F franchise was already slowing down domestically with the eighth installment, as well. Topping $200M seems unlikely then, but at least matching the leads’ solo highs of San Andreas and The Meg should be doable.
Opening: $55.2M
total: $162.3M
The New Mutants
August 2 (maybe)
Arguably the biggest question marks of the summer is whether New Mutants releases and, indeed, whether it ever makes it to theaters. The infamously troubled film is an even more uncertain position post Fox-Disney merger, and unconfirmed rumors in the last two weeks suggest another move to March 2020 is in the cards. Behind the scenes buzz is often overrated in terms of its impact on general audience appeal, but there’s there no doubt the treatment of the film suggests the studio doesn’t know what to do with it, which is a major problem. In my opinion, the final product will be probably be fine, but if it does release this weekend, it’s doubtful there will be much of a push in the final stretch.
Opening: $16.8M
total: $40.5M
Artemis Fowl
August 9
You can’t say Disney doesn’t take big risks (even if those risks are in the hope of creating a new blockbuster franchise). In what has become a bi-annual institution, the Mouse House is betting $100M+ on a live-action adaptation that will most likely fall flat on its face. The trailer did not make much of a splash, so Nutcracker and the Four Realms numbers ($20M opening, $55M finish) look to be the ticket.
Opening: $17.3M
total: $55.2M
Brian Banks
August 9
Independent film distributor Bleecker Street largest film to date is Logan Lucky, with a $7.6M opening and $27.8M final domestic gross. Their two other wide releases (Megan Leavey and Unsane) both opened to $3.8M, which feels like a good range for this.
Opening: $3.8M
total: $14.0M
The Kitchen
August 9
Melissa McCarthy and Tiffany Haddish have had similar career trajectories (show stealing supporting roles in breakout comedies followed by a significant increase in profile) and together make for a potent combination of star power, not to mention Elisabeth Moss has had her own surge thanks to The Handmaid’s Tale and Us. The same caution as other R-rated comedies still applies, but this seems to have the potential to buck the trend somewhat.
Opening: $25.6M
total: $88.5M
Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark
August 9
A property that holds a special place in the hearts of many children of the ‘80s and ‘90s (including yours truly), the trailer has promised imagery that is faithful to the genuinely disturbing source material. That said, between CBS Films being a co-distributor with Lionsgate and some of the posters, I can’t shake the sense of a “lowfi” feel around this film. It’s hard to separate my own nostalgia for this, so I’ll split the difference and go with a middle-of-the-road box office run. It should at least do better than last year’s Slender Man that had a $11.4/$30.6M run.
Opening: $20.6M
total: $56.4M
The Angry Birds Movie 2
August 14
The first Angry Birds film did decently for a videogame adaptation, opening to $38M and closing with $108M domestically. Those are not, however, good legs for a family film, especially for one that released a weekend before Memorial Day. Along with the collapse in popularity for the brand, this sequel is likely to be a big dip. One positive is this the last filmed geared towards families of the summer, and will likely benefit from that over Labor Day weekend.
opening: $24.9M (5-day)
total: $64.2M
Blinded By the Light
August 14
Featuring a cast of mostly unknowns, this drama inspired by true events is likely to skirt the line of a “wide” release, and hence will almost certainly debut to low figures. This is one that’s very difficult to judge simply by virtue of how unknown the potential to expand into further theaters is. But generally, films of this profile do not stay on the circuit for long.
Opening: $0.6M (5-day)
total: $1.3M
47 Meters Down: Uncaged
August 16
At this juncture it’s worth pointing out this is the third release I’ve covered for this weekend, and there’s three more to go! As is usually case, mid-August is about where studios try to capture as much of the summer box office that remains. Anyway, 2017’s 47 Meters Down was a surprisingly leggy hit, with its opening weekend accounting for only a quarter of its domestic total. Add in the success of The Meg last year and shark films certainly have an audience. The outlook is good for this sequel to improve a bit.
Opening: $17.5M
total: $50.5M
Good Boys
August 16
Raunchy comedies starring kids are very rare, and it’s that factor that this film is hoping to capitalize on. I do not have a good sense on what moviegoers’ interest in seeing essentially Superbad-but-with-6th-graders is, and if The Kitchen catches on, this will face stiff competition for the comedy audience.
Opening: $11.9M
total: $40.5M
The Informer
August 16
Pretty much everything about this project comes across like a mid-to-late August dump. Slightly known leading man, cheap look, release alongside numerous others, and an almost non-existent marketing push suggests this will be one of the worst performing wide release of the summer.
Opening: $1.8M
total: $4.1M
Where'd You Go, Bernadette
August 16
Richard Linklater’s latest film has been pushed back no less than three times (so, y’know, fifty-fifty on whether or not this one sticks). It’s based off a bestselling book and has a good shot at critical acclaim, so the handling of the film is a little baffling. The distributor, United Artists Releasing, is an arm of the young production company Annapurna who have not shown them to be deft at handling releases, and Bernadette may be a casualty of that.
Opening: $2.8M
total: $9.5M
Angel Has Fallen
August 23
This third iteration of the Fallen series falls squarely under the “was likely made for overseas money” category. London saw its grosses tumble to $62.5M compared to Olympus’ $98.9M, but international audiences gave it twice as much coin as the original, to the tune of $143.2M. Even with it being the de facto number one film over two weekends, domestically this is one franchise that will keep on fallin’.
Opening: $14.8M
total: $41.2M
Overcomer
August 23
The Christian film genre has deflated significantly in recent years, with the most failing to crack double digits (though still can produce sizable hits like I Can Only Imagine with $83.5M). In Overcomer’s favor is director Alex Kendrick, who has made his name with other Christian films like Warm Room and Fireproof. This may provide some additional exposure.
Opening: $6.8M
total: $34.7M
Phew! If you’re still with me, here’s the top ten domestic grosses that I have penciled in:
top 10 domestic
Avengers: Endgame — $728.1M
The Lion King — $657.4M
Toy Story 4 — $430.3M
Spider-Man: Far From Home — $394.2M
The Secret Life of Pets 2 — $259.3M
Detective Pikachu — $231.5M
Godzilla: King of the Monsters — $220.0M
Aladdin — $191.7M
Hobbs & Shaw — $162.3M
John Wick: Chapter 3 — Parabellum — $152.5M
The projected cumulative total of those ten films is $3.424B, which would represent a significant eight percent increase over the $3.162B grosses by last summer’s top ten. I actually feel pretty confident in something along that trajectory panning out. A lot has been written about the slow period for movies so far this year, how many double digit percentages theater business has declined, “worst holiday weekend in 15 years,” etc. The truth is the box office goes through its slow periods, its up and downs, always to bounce back with more records broken every year. Of course, it’s no guarantee that this summer slate will ultimately help make up for the downturn, however, I see a lot of appealing properties that are generating a ton of interest. If Hollywood can deliver on the final product, audiences will show up en masse.