5/10/19 Weekend Predictions - Detective Pikachu looks to zap Avengers and catch #1 spot
“That’s a twist! That’s very twisty.”
Earth’s mightiest heroes will face their greatest challenge to date not from a purple Mad Titan, but… from a lovable yellow video game character? It may sound like, given the track record of video game adaptations, that even in Endgame’s third weekend this shouldn’t be much of a battle. And official tracking is all over the place, casting serious doubt over how things will unfold. But I have reason to feel bullish on the unlikely buddy cop Pokémon flick, and believe a new box office champ is on its way.
One of the biggest media franchises in the world, Pokémon has on more than one occasion had a major impact on the world; look no further than how popular the mobile game Pokémon Go still is with massive groups of players still coalescing at designated gyms, not to mention the recent Nintendo Switch game selling over three million copies in a week. As a brand, it remains at its apex and has touched the hearts of adults and children for over two decades. And (unlike other video game properties), the filmmakers have wisely adhered to the original designs of the Pokémon, creating some truly spectacular looking CGI creations—though admittedly, some have not made the transition to a live-action film gracefully. Now, Detective Pikachu may seem like an odd fit, considering that the video game its based on was one of the least successful Pokémon games, however, it does offer a couple advantages. Chief among them is allowing Pikachu to speak, and as we’ve seen with films like Toy Story or The Secret Life of Pets or Zootopia, talking animals/toys has major appeal especially in the same world as humans. Moreover, the voice casting of Ryan Reynolds has given the film an even bigger footprint, as his online presence and blockbuster role as Deadpool provides additional appeal to older demographics.
Of course, outside of the Endgame factor, the albatross around Detective Pikachu’s neck is the rotten to the core reputation that surrounds video game adaptations. Reviews currently are decent, with a 69% on Rotten Tomatoes, but should that stick this will be the first adaptation of a video game to receive a “fresh” rating on the review aggregate site with most falling well short of that distinction. At this point, audiences are well aware these films are generally not good, and we’ve seen that stigma negatively affect other adapts in the past; the biggest domestically is still 2002’s Tomb Raider ($47.7M opening, $131.2M total) and the biggest worldwide is 2016’s Warcraft ($433.7M). With a reported $150M budget, none of those figures are ones distributor Warner Bros. would be happy with. The good news is that, as mentioned above, the faithful recreations of the Pokémon have generated substantial buzz, so I fully sense Detective Pikachu will be able to comfortably pass those current records. My initial forecast last month called for an opening in the $95M-$100M range, this now seems unlikely given how much Endgame has overperformed, but with plenty of hype and a 4,200+ theater count, an opening a hair over $80M feels plausible.
I’d be remiss to not mention that this is one of the biggest question marks of the summer for tracking services. The trades have reported a crazy range of $50M all the way to $80M, with WB expectedly going with low 50’s (studios will typically under predict their own films), so If you wanted an indication of how vexing Detective Pikachu has box office prognosticators, there it is. The reasons I’m feeling confident swinging for the top end is twofold: One, tracking services are not wont to go out on a limp, so the troublesome record of video game adaptations is likely lowering their projections, and Two, the late marketing has been phenomenal (in particular the leaked “full movie” which has generated over nine million views in a day on YouTube alone). None of that’s to say I think it’s impossible for the film’s opening to hit just $50M, simply that I believe that to be a definite low ball at this juncture.
One of the key features to look for this weekend will be Pikachu’s performance on Saturday. The film has been advertised heavily towards families, and with other kids movies floundering (looking at you, Missing Link and UglyDolls), there’s a big potential market to fill. A solid increase from the pure Friday cume would be in the 35-40% range, and an early indication of family support may be essential. The biggest caution from reviews has been the story receiving complaints, so it’s likely that families will be the source of sustained legs. Since this is still appealing to older moviegoers nostalgic about the series and—like me—adults that still play the games, however, there will be some fan rush factor. Along with fierce competition ahead from Aladdin and The Secret Life of Pets 2, I don’t expect it to achieve a 3.0 multiplier off its opening weekend.
Finally on Detective Pikachu’s overseas prospects, the general expectations are an internationally tally in the $90M-$110M range. China is looking to hit around $50M to $60M and most major territories are releasing this weekend as well, so I would peg the range more around $135M or higher. Should that pan out, that would leave the Pokémon adaptation well positioned to cross $650M worldwide, a fine number and a certain guarantee a sequel moves forward. One notable piece of news is Detective Pikachu’s opening in Japan last week, where it grossed $6.9M. This is obviously not an overwhelming number, but Japan has not been receptive to live-action Hollywood remakes of their properties, so it is certainly a solid result.
| Previews | $5.9M | |
|---|---|---|
| Friday/Opening Day | $22.5M/$28.4M | |
| Saturdaay | $31.4M | +39.6%/+10.6% |
| Sunday | $21.2M | -32.5% |
| Domestic Opening | $81.0M | |
| International Opening | $135.3M | |
| Worldwide Opening | $216.3M | |
| Domestic Total | $225.9M | |
| International Total | $435.3M | |
| Worldwide Total | $661.2M |
Three other openers will open in 1,000+ theaters to attempt the counter programming game, hoping for more success than last week’s would-be triplet. The Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson led heist comedy The Hustle has been doing decently based on anecdotal presales, pacing only a little behind Little (I am so sorry for that), which opened to $15.4M earlier this year. The reviews for The Hustle have just dropped today and they are pretty rough, which could cap it in the low teens. One factor that may allow it to debut higher is Mother’s Day on Sunday, but I’m remaining conservative.
Another female led comedy, but looking to stake claim at an older demo, is Poms, which intends to ride to similar success (with the same lead) as 2018’s Book Club ($13.6M opening). Unfortunately, presales and online traffic are down considerably from last year’s Diane Keaton vehicle, and it seems an opening well below $10M is in the cards.
Lastly for the major releases, Fox Searchlight’s Tolkien finds itself in a deeply unenviable position. Very strong competition, negative publicity from the Tolkien outright disavowing the film, and weak reviews (currently a 48% on Rotten Tomatoes) are particularly the kiss of death for dramatic films like this. Expect no more than $3M for the weekend.
With that out of the way, the second biggest question of the week after that Pokémon movie is how Avengers: Endgame will fare. So far, weekdays domestically and internationally have not been quite as strong as I thought they would be, so $2.5B worldwide this weekend will come down to the wire. For the second weekend in US + Canada, given the competition provided by Detective Pikachu, I don’t foresee Endgame matching the 45-46% declines seen by Infinity War or the first Avengers film. Instead an understandable 50-54% drop should be expected which will put the film already at an incredible $730M+.
Remaining holdovers are unlikely to provide a great deal of excitement. The Intruder will likely follow the 55-60% drop common for thrillers of its ilk, and any great drop for Long Shot will be hindered by two other comedies entering the field. Already facing rough publicity, STX won’t get a reprieve as UglyDolls faces of another, far more hyped family film, a recipe for disaster. Captain Marvel will attempt to cross $425M this weekend, as the other Captain Marvel Shazam! may see a strong hold this weekend due to double-feature boosts with fellow WB film Detective Pikachu.
| Weekend | Drop from Last Wkd | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Detective Pikachu | $81,000,000 | N/A | |
| Avengers: Endgame | $69,000,000 | -53.2% | |
| The Hustle | $12,900,000 | N/A | |
| Poms | $8,100,000 | N/A | |
| Long Shot | $5,500,000 | -43.5% | |
| The Intruder | $4,400,00 | -59.5% | |
| UglyDolls | $3,700,000 | -57.0% | |
| Tolkien | $3,000,000 | N/A | |
| Captain Marvel | $2,500,000 | -41.6% | |
| Breathrough | $2,300,000 | -39.3$ | |
| Shazam! | $1,700,000 | -32.0% | |
| The Curse of La Llorona | $1,400,000 | -62.2% |