5/3/19 Weekend Predictions - Avengers: Endgame will try to break more records against four "long shot" newcomers
“I don’t think I am too much! I actually think I am the perfect, right portion.”
Soaring into its second weekend as the likely 14th highest grossing film domestically with $475M+, Avengers: Endgame will nevertheless face fierce competition from a slew of intriguing and hyped films. Or it may top them all combined by a factor of five. We should probably go with the latter.
After obliterating the opening weekend record, Endgame has continued the bonanza, scoring a non-holiday record of $36.9M (down only 59.2% from Sunday) and then the third biggest Tuesday with $33.1M, behind only The Force Awakens’ holiday assisted Tuesday and The Amazing Spider-Man’s opening day. Wednesday has come in at $25.2M, representing a great 23.9% drop; this is the first significant deviation from my weekday projection, and is a positive one for the film. So the 150 million dollar question is, can we see a new second weekend record? The current holder is The Force Awakens, which hit $149.2M with the double whammy aid of Christmas Friday and Boxing Day Saturday. Endgame won’t have that benefit, but has a release date more favorable to weekend gross, but it has been delivering weekdays that account for an unprecedented percentage of its weekend for this time of year anyway, which can siphon demand. I’ll confess to being conflicted; will it continue to outperform my expectations and hit $160M, will the must-see-immediately watercooler chatter have pushed too much demand to the weekdays, or will it blow us all away again with a $175M-$200M second weekend? My gut is telling me it will be the second option, though I perhaps am gun shy in my recollection of The Dark Knight and The Force Awakens not quite matching expectations after their historic weekdays—and keep in mind those still broke the second weekend record. So I’ll go with one hundred fifty even, but am not going to be surprised if the MCU behemoth handily dusts more records.
Overseas, the numbers have been just as, if not more, out of this world. Already the 6th highest grossing film worldwide as of Wednesday and guaranteed to be number five once Thursday’s box office is released, Endgame has been running at a pace that practically beggars belief. And the party doesn’t stop as it paces to cross the $2B mark on Saturday, its 11th day of release (the current speed record to that mark is 47 days, held by Avatar) and then $2.2-2.3B when the last dollar on Sunday is counted. A particular highlight will be to see if China can reach the $600M mark this Sunday or not; it may fall just short, but that’s nothing to hold against what is already the highest grossing Hollywood production in the Middle Kingdom. All told, Endgame’s super sonic sprinting still has Avatar’s worldwide record in its sights, and I believe it’s an unmissable bullseye at this point.
The new openers this week were already going to be facing a tall mountain to climb, but no one could have foreseen it’d be a peak that would make Mt. Everest blush. Counter programming can be an effective measure, but Endgame has sucked up so much oxygen in the room and is catering to such a vast and diverse audience that everything will have its potential capped. The Intruder is likely to fair the best of the four, by virtue of its particular brand having consistent success. Critics have trashed the thriller, which is no surprise and not a concerning factor. Opening one week closer to an Avengers movie than Breaking In ($17.6M opening) is, though.
Charlize Theron pairs off with Seth Rogen—in his first major role in three years—in the political romantic comedy Long Shot which, no, is not in reference to its box office prospects (made that joke in the title and then here, the true sign of wit). In my summer forecast, I probably was too hard on this and UglyDolls. Working in its favor is a higher than expected 3,200+ theater count, considerably better than the 1,353 that netted Theron’s Tully a $3.3M opening. Presales have been mediocre for the film, and I feel the point about the lack of appeal of political films still rings true. Not likely to be a disaster, but a soft opening a bit below $10M seems reasonable.
Troubled studio STX will release their first of two (much to my chagrin, Playmobil was moved to Labor Day less than a week after the summer forecast went up) animated movies this summer with UglyDolls. Its theater count stands at a solid 3,652, though as The Nut Job 2’s $8.3M opening in a crazy 4,003 locations shows, that does not mean a whole lot for family films. Dolls find itself stuck between the proverbial rock and hard place, too; Endgame will no doubt be attracting many families again, and next week’s much buzzed Detective Pikachu is certain to be a more appealing product for parents and children alike. It’s a shame for STX, but expect this to be a big miss.
The final opener of the week, El Chicano faces the most direct competition from Endgame on account of its trailers selling up the action. Its unquestionably appealing to Latino audiences who are heavily represented in Hollywood movies and that is a bonus in its favor. But this barely qualifies as a wide release with 605 theaters. That, plus remarkably fierce, and I can’t see this getting to even $1M over the weekend.
After suffering the superhero onslaught last week, most holdovers will look to catch their breath now that audiences will be spending 90% of their cash on one film. Typically, post mega opener declines are quite good and while theaters making room for three films opening in over 2,000 theaters could dampen that, I still anticipate solid recoveries. Notably, Captain Marvel should cross $420M this weekend as it marches to a domestic total north of $430M, making it at least the fourth highest grossing film with a female lead.
UPDATE: Theater counts were released about 20 minutes after I put up this post, and they show significant declines for La Llorona ( Shazam! (-1,110), Dumbo (-712), and Little (-766). I have changed my predictions for those accordingly.
| Gross | Wknd Decline | |
|---|---|---|
| Avengers: Endgame | $150.0M | -57.8% |
| The Intruder | $10.5M | |
| Long Shot | $9.3M | |
| UglyDolls | $7.7M | |
| Captain Marvel | $5.1M | -38.6% |
| Breakthrough | $4.7M | -31.0% |
| The Curse of La Llorona | $4.0M | -50.3% |
| Shazam! | $2.9M | -48.0% |
| Little | $2.0M | -42.4% |
| Dumbo | $1.6M | -54.2% |
| El Chicano | $0.7M |