5/24/19 Weekend Predictions - Aladdin wishes for Memorial Day glory, as other openers look to burn dimly
“There’s a lot of grey area in ‘make me a prince’”
For the fifth consecutive Memorial Day weekend, Disney is releasing a big budget tentpole film over the first holiday frame of the summer, intending to both take advantage of the long weekend and try to break their own record (Pirates of the Caribbean 3 currently holds the Memorial Day record with a $139.8M 4-day total). Despite the historically lucrative period, Disney’s recent efforts have landed with varying degrees of thud: Tomorrowland ($42.7M 4-day), Alice Through the Looking Glass ($33.5M), Pirates of the Caribbean 5 ($78.5M), and Solo: A Star Wars Story ($103.0M, a bad result for its budget). The latest attempt by the Mouse House to make Memorial Day happen is the live-action remake of their animation renaissance classic Aladdin, starring Will Smith in the iconic Genie role. Will nostalgia be able to drive the film and break this apparent Disney Memorial Day “curse”?
Firstly, it’s worth looking at why this release date isn’t really as ideal as it used to be. Until the late ‘90s, Memorial Day was the unofficial beginning of the summer season for Hollywood, with the most hyped and biggest openers of the year typically launching over the late May weekend. For the last two decades, though, studios have permanently shifted the summer forward—with Disney now declaring it begins in late April—while also putting out some of their biggest hitters in June and July. This, along with a routinely mediocre slate for the long weekend, has created a “middle child” syndrome for Memorial Day openers; marketing now have to work overtime to make them stand out among the surrounding competition.
On its face, a live-action remake Aladdin would seem to be the sort of slam dunk that could overcome those challenges. The original grossed $217.3M in 1992 (adjusting to $472.5M today), is still well remembered today, and 2017’s Beauty and the Beast remake was able to similarly use nostalgia to gross an eye-popping $504.0M (compared to the $315.0M adjusted cume of the original). Despite that, tracking service have Aladdin in the $75M-$85M for the 4-day, with some even dipping down into the high 60’s. So what’s the deal? The biggest contention is the rendition of Will Smith’s Genie, whose blue CGI body became an immediate punchline upon reveal. The vibrant 2D world and transformations of the Genie were the most fondly remembered elements of the original, and giving that character a realistic makeover was always going to be the most difficult and most essential element to the film. They would see to have botched that, and that’s surely put a massive dent in the nostalgia fueling hype around the picture.
Other footage has gone down easier, but none so far would appear to have erased that ever important first impression. Reviews are also less-than-average thus far, currently standing at a 61% on Rotten Tomatoes with 137 reviews and a 54 on Metacritic with 39 reviews. Additionally, Disney’s last twp live-action remakes were not hits, with Mary Poppins Returns grossing only $172.0M even with December, and Dumbo was a significant disappointing, opening to only $46.0M and will soon finish its run with roughly $112M domestically. On the plus side, Aladdin is likely to cater stronger to women than men, a rarity for blockbusters in any summer, and extravagant musicals have done well in recent years (think The Greatest Showman).
Estimated to release in 4,400+ locations, Aladdin will have one of the seven widest releases ever, though that is likely to impact holdovers more than given Aladdin much of a boost. Presales data suggests that the Disney remake is doing quite well, but theater reports in some metropolitan areas show it pacing around the same range as Detective Pikachu and John Wick 3. The balls gets rolling with 5PM fan screenings on Thursday and, along with essentially all IMAX and PLF screens, the long weekend should be able to push its 4-day weekend to around $80M. Given the competition in the coming weeks along with the general extreme frontloading major Memorial Day releases exhibit, a result in that range would signal a domestic total under $200M, which would have to qualify as a disappointment given the popularity of the original.
On the international front, Aladdin will carpet the planet in every major market this weekend with the except of Japan (that releases on June 7), and should guarantee an international opening over $100M. Early presales are not especially strong, with the important Chinese market looking to largely reject the picture with a weekend in the lows teens, so much more than $100M does seem unlikely.
| Previews | $6.4M | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday/Opening Day | $17.8M/$24.2M | ||
| Saturday | $20.5M | +15.2%/-15.3% | |
| Sunday | $19.5M | -4.9% | |
| Monday | $15.9M | -18.5% | |
| Domestic Opening 3-day/4-day | $64.2M/$80.1M | ||
| International Opening (3-day) | $103.4M | ||
| Worldwide Opening (3-day) | $167.6M | ||
| Domestic Total | $173.5M | ||
| International Total | $363.0M | ||
| Worldwide Total | $536.5M | ||
Looking to offer the first taste of horror of the summer, Sony’s Brightburn asks what would happen if Superman was a murder machine. Reviews are decent currently, and the premise is intriguing, though current presales are in the same range as Overlord ($10.2M opening) and are not suggesting a breakout. The marketing is promising a more straight horror film than the zombie picture, so I’m anticipating a debut in the low teens for the 3-day.
In a bold movie, Annapurna is dropping their excellently reviewed (currently 99% on Rotten Tomatoes) coming-of-age comedy Booksmart in over 2,500 theaters this weekend. The studio is hoping to counterprogram other blockbusters and pull in at least $10M over the long weekend, but so far this summer has been extremely unkind to that tactic. Widespread audience screenings over the last month should help raise awareness as well, but my instinct is that going so wide right away is a mistake. Expect that $10M number to be the ceiling.
John Wick 3 will lap past the the second film by Sunday, its tenth day of release, as strong word of mouth plus a lack of direct competition should give it a sub 50% decline for the 3-day. If so, that would give Chapter 3 a second weekend near $30M—what Chapter 2 opened to—and a total around $115M come Monday.
Among holdovers, Avengers: Endgame has shown signs of stabilizing during the week, and with another Disney release opening, should see a great hold this weekend as it smashes past the $800M mark domestically. Worldwide, it should come close to hitting $2.7B as the superhero mega picture continues to bring in cash around the globe.
After dropping 53.8% in its second weekend, Detective Pikachu is hoping that the holiday weekend will soften the blow Aladdin is likely to deliver. The Disney remake coming in the lower end of expectations would certainly help Pikachu as it is the only other major release catering to families and kids.
TOP TWELVE PREDICTIONS
| 4-day Weekend | Drop From Last Wkd | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aladdin | $80,100,000 | N/A | |
| John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum | $36,500,000 | -35.8% | |
| Avengers: Endgame | $22,800,000 | -23.9% | |
| Detective Pikachu | $17,900,000 | -28.7% | |
| Brightburn | $14,400,000 | N/A | |
| Booksmart | $9,300,000 | N/A | |
| A Dog's Journey | $6,000,000 | -25.3% | |
| The Hustle | $4,400,000 | -28.1% | |
| The Intruder | $3,200,000 | -20.4% | |
| Long Shot | $2,600,000 | -22.2% | |
| The Sun Is Also a Star | $1,500,000 | -40.2% | |
| Poms | $1,200,000 | -45.0% |