5/31/19 Weekend Predictions - Godzilla looks to become box office king, as Rocketman and Ma should liven up the non-franchise scene

Releasing five years following its successful predecessor, Godzilla: King of the Monsters is poised to reclaim the box office throne. Tracking has pegged the film at $50M to $55M, with at least one observer believing that $70M can happen. The biggest hurdles facing Godzilla this weekend is the weak reception of its predecessor; while it opened to a staggering $93.2M, audiences were not keen on how little giant monster action there, and weak legs resulted in a domestic just a shade over $200M. Reviews have also not been kind, with the kaiju flick’s critical reception floundering with a 41% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 49/100 on Metacritic. The good news is giant monster films often top their tracking regardless of reviews (think The Meg opening to $45.4M), so I am seeing a weekend above the $60M mark, but below the top end predictions from tracking firms.

Hoping to tap into the same audience that propelled Bohemian Rhapsody to a $51.0M opening, Paramount should get a much needed hit as the Elton John biopic Rocketman opens in 3,610 theaters. While it’s extremely unlikely to get to $50M this weekend—Queen in general is more popular, an R rating, and musical competition from the impressively strong Aladdin are all in its way—presales are strong and excellent reviews so far point to an opening in the low $30M range.

Horror hit distributor Blumhouse is looking to spin another low budget hit with the Octavia Spencer driven Ma, which looks to tap into an audience that passed wholesale on Brightburn this week. The best comparison points at this juncture suggest an opening in the $17M to $18M range, which would put Ma on par with fellow Blumhouse picture Truth or Dare.

  
    TOP TWELVE PROJECTIONS
  
    Weekend 
    Projected Drop
  
    Godzilla: King of the Monsters
    
    $65,000,000
    N/A
  
    Aladdin
    
    $41,900,000
    -54.2%
  
    Rocketman
    
    $31,800,000
    N/A
  
    Ma
    
    $17,800,000
    N/A
  
    John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum
    
    $13,600,000
    -44.7%
  
    Avengers: Endgame
    
    $8,500,000
    -50.6%
  
    Detective Pikachu
    
    $7,300,000
    -45.6%
  
    Booksmart
    
    $4,000,000
    -42.3%
  
    Brightburn
    
    $2,700,000
    -65.6%
  
    A Dog's Journey
    
    $1,500,000
    -63.8%
  
    The Hustle
    
    $1,400,000
    -60.9%
  
    The Intruder
    
    $900,000
    -60.9%

TOP TWELVE PROJECTIONS
	Weekend	Projected Drop
Godzilla: King of the Monsters	$65,000,000	N/A
Aladdin	$41,900,000	-54.2%
Rocketman	$31,800,000	N/A
Ma	$17,800,000	N/A
John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum	$13,600,000	-44.7%
Avengers: Endgame	$8,500,000	-50.6%
Detective Pikachu	$7,300,000	-45.6%
Booksmart	$4,000,000	-42.3%
Brightburn	$2,700,000	-65.6%
A Dog's Journey	$1,500,000	-63.8%
The Hustle	$1,400,000	-60.9%
The Intruder	$900,000	-60.9%

PredictionsZack ClarkMay 30, 2019Godzilla, Box Office, Projections, Rocketman, Ma, John Wick 3, Aladdin, AvengersComment