6/21/19 Weekend Predictions - Pixar looks to get another box office box of treasures with Toy Story 4
The computer animated film series that started it all gets its fourth—and quite possibly final—installment this Friday as Disney prepares to buck the sequel fatigue that has hit Hollywood this month. Meanwhile, another, more creepy doll will gets a reboot and a creep director is releasing a film that shares similarities with his own past hits.
Hitting theaters twenty four and a half years ago, Toy Story was a true cornerstone in cinema history, ushering in the dominance of computer generated animation that we still live in. Opening over Thanksgiving in 1994, it was immediate hit, opening to #1 with $29.1M and legging it out to $191.8M domestically. The sequel, releasing five years later on the same weekend, saw a significant increase to a $57.4M opening on its way to a $245.8M finish. After a long period of creating original content, Pixar would wait over a decade to return to Woody and Buzz, releasing Toy Story 3 in June 2010. A 3D boost plus inflation propelled the threequel to a huge $110.3M opening, a $415.0M domestic finish, and a gigantic $1.067B worldwide. This commercial success is also matched critically, as Toy Story stands as the most well reviewed trilogy in film history. Now, after a full nine year break, will the franchise be able to reach new heights, and even an animation opening record?
Tracking for the film has a very ride range of $150M all the way to $200M, which would mean either the second largest or largest opening ever for an animated film, depending on what side of Incredibles 2’s astounding $182.7M opening it lands on. First day presales were ahead of Incredibles 2 but have slowed down a bit in the last couple weeks. Benefiting Toy Story 4 is that superhero films are typically more frontloaded to presales, even animated ones, and reviews for the fourquel are significantly better: Pixar has continued the Toy Story series unprecedented critical run with 98% on Rotten Tomatoes and 84 on Metacritic. That along with the generational appeal seems certain to propel Woody and co. over the $150M mark, but topping $180M and making a run for the double century mark will require incredible word of mouth to build momentum throughout the weekend. Another consideration is that Sunday will not be Father’s Day as it was for Incredibles 2, Finding Dory, and Toy Story 3.
Limited fan showings will get the ball rolling at 5PM tonight with a full preview rollout starting at 6PM. Presales and theater reports suggest similar numbers to last year’s Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, which delivered $15.3M that translated into a $148.0M opening. Family films tend to be less preview heavy, even Pixar films that skew older, so I’m sensing that translating to an opening right around $165M. Post opening weekend, the outlook is great for Toy Story 4; it faces no Jurassic World 2 sized hit in its second weekend, and there is no major animated film until August (The Lion King is, of course, fundamentally an animated film, but its photo realistic approach gives it a “semi” live action appeal. And being Disney, it’s likely to not hurt Toy Story 4 much), so expect better legs than Incredibles 2 for a multiplier in the 3.5 range.
Overseas, the Pixar release will march into over 60% of its overseas markets, a significant portion compared to past films from the animation studio. As such, I’m anticipating an international weekend in the $120M range. 3’s $652.0M international haul actually still ranks as the highest for any Pixar film, but the lion’s share of its gross came from territories whose exchange rates have become extremely unfavorable in the past decade. As a result, a gross even a bit under $600M would be a fantastic result.
| TOY STORY 4 Predictions | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Previews | $14.9M | ||
| Friday/Opening Day | $51.5M/$66.4M | ||
| Saturday | $53.5M | +3.9%/-19.4% | |
| Sunday | $44.4M | -17.0% | |
| Domestic Opening | $164.3M | ||
| International Opening | $121.9M | ||
| Worldwide Opening | $286.2M | ||
| Domestic Total | $561.7M | ||
| International Total | $585.0M | ||
| Worldwide Total | $1.147B | ||
Hoping to cash in on that nostalgia train, United Artists has positioned the Child’s Play remake this weekend, and their marketing has taken full advantage of the same day release as Toy Story 4. Horror films are a hot commodity right now, and Chucky is a fairly recognizable slasher icon, though not on the same level as Michael Myers or Jason. Tracking has the film in the high teens, and surprisingly solid reviews (currently 70% on Rotten Tomatoes and 47 on Metacritic) could end up helping. I am going to be slightly cautious because presales in the final day before release have not been as encouraging, and the marketing has been more or a one-trick pony than an effective showcase of scares. Additionally, Annabelle Comes Home releases on Wednesday, and it’s possible horror enthusiasts will save their money for that.
Luc Besson’s femme fatale thriller Anna will likely see a poor showing this weekend. Tracking has the film in the low single digits, and presales suggest that as well, so an opening in the $3M-$4M range is where I have it.
Coming off the Father’s Day assisted weekend—a number of films saw increases on Sunday—and facing the Pixar juggernaut, most holdovers are likely to suffer steep declines. Aladdin, which is losing only 121 theaters, will likely be the exception, especially with it also being a Disney release. If it can achieve a sub 40% drop, and I think it can, then Aladdin will be well positioned to crack the $325M mark domestically by the end of its run.
| TOP TWELVE PREDICTIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekend Gross | Percentage Drop | ||
| Toy Story 4 | $164,300,00 | N/A | |
| Child's Play | $15,500,000 | N/A | |
| Men in Black: International | $11,200,000 | -62.7% | |
| The Secret Life of Pets 2 | $11,000,000 | -54.9% | |
| Aladdin | $10,900,000 | -37.0% | |
| Rocketman | $5,300,000 | -43.7% | |
| Godzilla: King of the Monsters | $4,300,000 | -51.1% | |
| Shaft | $3,700,000 | -58.4% | |
| Anna | $3,600,000 | N/A | |
| John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum | $3,500,000 | -45.3% | |
| Dark Phoenix | $3,400,000 | -63.6% | |
| Late Night | $3,000,000 | -43.0% | |