6/14/19 Weekend Predictions - Men in Black: International and Shaft likely to suffer from summer 2019 sequel woes
Two more continuations of decades old properties hit cinemas this weekend, one featuring a new leading duo while the other brings back a most iconic star. And one also costs about three times as much as the other. Despite all those differences, it seems likely both will significantly underperform expectations as sequels continue to see significant erosion from their predecessors.
Men in Black: International is the fourth installment of the sci-fi blockbuster series, which began with the juggernaut first film in 1997 (it was the second highest grossing film of the year with $250.7M) and solidified Will Smith as the biggest star in the world at the time. MIB2 and 3 did not top the first, but were still solid hits ($190.4M and $172.0M domestic, respectively), though the enormous cost of the third is likely why we are seeing new main characters. This almost always makes for a tough proposition, and the star power of Chris Hemsworth and Thessa Thompson have not resulted in dollars outside of the MCU. Worse news are the reviews; the fourquel is currently sitting at a 25% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 39 on Metacritic, some of the roughest reviews of the summer. Buoying the weekend will be Father’s Day Sunday, historically a great day for the box office, so it seems like a tracking matching weekend of $30M can still happen. Don’t just bet on any more.
Taking an approach of bridging the gap between old (and older) and new, Shaft which is a direct sequel to the 2000 film of the same name (that film opened to $21.7M and finished with $70.3M). Earlier this month, it seemed like Shaft might be poised for a breakout and could possibly vie for first place.Unfortunately, weak reviews (35% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 47 on Metacritic), very low presales, and a mediocre marketing campaign (notably, Netflix has the international rights to the film and is releasing it on June 28, suggesting why marketing for the film may be low) are all pointing towards a debut in the teens instead. It’s worth noting films starring African American actors often over-index, as industry tracking still does not track AA audiences well, so there is potential for a breakout into the $20M range.
Last week’s disappointing champ The Secret Life of Pets 2 will try to recover a bit with a lack of competition plus a Father’s Day boost. Historically, though, underperforming animated sequels tend to continue that trend through the rest of their run (Cars 3 dropped 55.2% in its second weekend and How to Train Your Dragon 2 dropped 50.0%), so a decline in that range seems likely.
Dark Phoenix has had extremely brutal weekday results so far, and its Wednesday number most compares to Ang Lee’s Hulk and that had a 69.7% second weekend drop. Father’s Day will help, but sixteen years later results in more frontloading as a whole, so a 70% drop for the X-men closer is on the table.
Other holdovers not suffering significant theater count declines are certain to see excellent holds this weekend thanks weak openers and the Father’s Day boost. Notable holds to look at will be Aladdin, which will cross $260M, John Wick 3 blasting past $145M, and Endgame coming very close to $830M.
TOP TWELVE PREDICTIONS
) Men in Black: International - $29.6M
) The Secret Life of Pets 2 - $23.3M
) Aladdin - $18.3M
) Shaft - $14.1M
) Dark Phoenix - $10.5M
) Rocketman - $8.0M
) Godzilla: King of the Monsters - $7.7M
) John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum - $4.9M
) Avengers: Endgame - $3.4M
) Late Night - $3.3M
) Ma - $2.5M
) The Dead Don’t Die - $1.4M