6/7/19 Weekend Predictions - Dark Phoenix and The Secret Life of Pets 2 set to start June box office ahead of 2018
“She caught the red dot! All hail the red queen!”
The June box office gets underway with two of the years biggest sequels which will look to build on their predecessors box office to a massive collective haul of over $170M this weekend… Or they both could see their grosses cut in half ala the King of the Monsters.
Likely to beat the superhero sequel, Illumination’s The Secret Life of Pets 2 is following a truly monstrous first film that still holds the record for the highest opening for an original film with $104.4M. Solid legs followed, propelling Pets (Or SLOP, if you prefer an amusing acronym) to a huge $368.4M, edging out Despicable Me 2 to become Illumination’s highest grossing film. In general, the studio has been on fire with success after success since first Despicable Me film, with no film grossing under $260M since and several instances of their fare outgrossing Pixar and Disney Animations films in the same year. Animation sequels typically do well in relation to their direct predecessor, so we should be in for a gigantic opening, right? Not exactly.
Worrying signs have been developing for SLOP 2 for weeks now, including weak presales, low opening in the U.K. relative to the first (U.K. is a territory that typically performs in step with the domestic market), the overperformance of Aladdin gives this some unexpected family competition, and reviews are currently the worst for any Illumination film this far with a 56% on Rotten Tomatoes and 53 on Metacritic. Additionally, the success of the film was driven greatly by brilliant marketing that this film has failed to replicate, instead promising a film that looks remarkably similar to the first. As we saw earlier this year with The LEGO Movie 2 that can torpedo even family films, and a similar dive as that film would put SLOP 2 into the $50M range. This will be a major test of the Illumination brand, as the studio and Universal will hope it can make as much money as possible before Toy Story 4 debuts in two weeks. Notably, that Pixar sequel is currently tracking for a gigantic $150M+ opening.
The final film (depending on how one counts New Mutants) of the nineteen year long superhero series, Dark Phoenix is carrying a tremendous amount of baggage with it. The first X-Men released in July 2000 and kicked off the modern superhero craze with a $54.5M opening, at the time the sixth largest debut in history. The rest of the franchise (I will be excluding Deadpool from this discussion, even though those are considered X-Men films) have had varying success over two decades, though only one has debuted under the first: X2 ($85.6M opening), The Last Stand ($102.8M), Origins: Wolverine ($85.1M), First Class ($55.1M), The Wolverine ($53.1M) Days of Future Past ($90.8M), Apocalypse ($65.8M), and Logan ($88.4M). Looking at that list, it’s clear that the new cast has not had the same star power as the originals, with the drop between Past and Apocalypse in particular show this disparity. Given that, along with the weak reception for Apocalypse, awful critical reviews for Dark Phoenix (a franchise low 22% on Rotten Tomatoes), and sluggish presales are all pointing towards a depressing debut under even $40M. Truly a flame-out for this franchise closer.
Internationally, Dark Phoenix takes flight in most major territories, and early news is not encouraging. U.K. opening day was down roughly 50% from Apocalypse, and weak word of mouth is looking to cap the 4-day China opening in the mid 40s range. Other East Asian territories are more kind, but that will not save the film from what is looking to also be a mediocre overseas opening.
| THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS 2 Predictions | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Previews | $3.0M | ||
| Friday/Opening Day | $14.9M/$17.9M | ||
| Saturday | $18.3M | +22.8%/+2.2% | |
| Sunday | $14.3M | -21.7% | |
| Domestic Opening | $50.5M | ||
| Domestic Total | $167.5M | ||
| International Total | $402.3M | ||
| Worldwide Total | $569.8M | ||
NOTE: The above weekend prediction does not include the early Fandango showings on May 25 for the film, for which no data has been released as of writing.
| DARK PHOENIX Predictions | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Previews | $4.8M | ||
| Friday/Opening Day | $10.6M/$15.4M | ||
| Saturday | $12.6M | +18.9%/-18.2% | |
| Sunday | $9.8M | -22.2% | |
| Domestic Opening | $37.8M | ||
| International Opening | $103.4M | ||
| Worldwide Opening | $141.7M | ||
| Domestic Total | $88.0M | ||
| International Total | $245.5M | ||
| Worldwide Total | $333.5M | ||
Godzilla 2 had a pretty brutal opening weekend, debuting to roughly half of the 2014 film with a $47.7M opening weekend. Audience scores do not suggest a word of mouth player, and the daily performance has not been encouraging, with the film falling behind Aladdin quite significantly. A percentage drop in the mid 60s seems likely as WB’s yearly slate continues to struggle.
Speaking of Aladdin, Disney’s late live-action remakes continues to set fire at the box office, as it blazed past $200M on Wednesday and $500M worldwide. With the two openers this week looking to hit at best the low end of tracking, Aladdin should continue to hold well as it makes its march to $300M and quite possibly well beyond that mark.
Also likely to continue going strong is Rocketman which faces no direct competition, and could have a drop as low as 35%. Blumhouse horror hit Ma will not be so fortunate, but with an $8M budget, it’s already a winner.
Notably, this will be another weekend in which holdovers more than 3 weeks old suffer theater count declines near or over 1,000. Consequently, films like Detective Pikachu and Avengers: Endgame will not be afforded a chance to stabilize, while Booksmart (very sadly) and Brightburn will be all but dust come Sunday.
| Top Twelve Projections | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekend Gross | Drop From Last Wkd | ||
| The Secret Life of Pets 2 | $50,500,000 | N/A | |
| Dark Phoenix | $37,800,000 | N/A | |
| Aladdin | $25,200,000 | -41.2% | |
| Godzilla: King of the Monsters | $16,400,000 | -65.7% | |
| Rocketman | $15,600,000 | -39.4% | |
| Ma | $7,400,000 | -59.1% | |
| John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum | $5,300,000 | -52.2% | |
| Avengers: Endgame | $3,900,000 | -51.5% | |
| Detective Pikachu | $3,100,000 | -55.4% | |
| Booksmart | $1,400,000 | -57.6% | |
| Bharat | $1,400,000 | N/A | |
| Brightburn | $700,000 | -71.5% | |